BiPSA IDF R&D
Scenario Response Form

The Tactical Horizon

Rational planning for military R&D must be based on a tactical estimate of the next round of military violence. Three diverging scenarios are submitted for your BiPSA vote. When done please visit our strategic page

This BiPSA form is specifically constructed to develop a high-credibility estimate of issues and matters critical for planning research and development (R&D) for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). Qualified votes would be integrated according to the BiPSA method and presented in The Samuel Neaman Institute for Advanced Studies Conference on Military R&D, scheduled for October 18, 2006.

Any Israeli, or a friend of Israel with background and qualifications to render a thoughtful judgment on the scenarios below is welcome to cast his or her vote along with self characterization of credentials (as indicated on the form below). AGS Encryptions Ltd. the operator of this survey, reserves the right to confirm the identity of voters, and reject any respondent suspected of non bona-fide status.

Instructions : (1) Please review the scenarios below. For each scenario, please click one option per box, voting in the three sections below each scenario. (2) Please fill in the identification section, followed by the qualifications section in this form. (3) When you are done, click on the "Send to BiPSA-Samuel Neaman Conference Processing Center" icon and your vote will be sent and integrated into the summary response, which will be presented at the conference.

Your answers would be integrated into the summary response according to your qualification attributes. The integrated response to each scenario would be presented at the conference. Find out about the use of BiPSA at AGS. To learn more about the general BiPSA concept please refer to www.bipsa.com. To check out the home page of AGS Encryptions, click here.

Scenario#1: Second Round With The Hezbollah Within A Year

No sooner would the Hezbollah be re-equipped, re-armed, and re-positioned than the 'unfinished war' would re-ignite. The presence of the new UNIFIL, and world pressure on Israel not to re-destroy the 'under re-construction' Lebanese infrastructure would severely tie Israel's hands.

Scenario#2: Israel Drawn to an American-Iranian Conflict (2008)

President Bush ratcheting up the perception of Iranian threat would find it necessary to launch a military offensive consistent with his perceived legacy in the Middle East. Israel would be the target of choice for Iranian counterattack, drawing it into a vast military conflict close to the end of the Bush presidency.

Scenario#3: An Iranian led Shiite Crescent would challenge Israel while an Appeasing President sits in the White House (2010).

True to their religious fundamentalist goal, Iran would successfully establish a Shiite crescent spanning towards Iraq and Lebanon, and challenge Israel with sub-threshold but persistent violence, relying on the sitting American President to limit Israel to a war of attrition rather than an all out conflict with grave risk to moderate Arab states.

Please Vote:

The above described scenario is more likely
TO HAPPEN: ...... NOT TO HAPPEN:

The above described scenario is
HIGHLY LIKELY: ...... HIGHLY UNLIKELY:
NONE OF THE ABOVE:

The above described scenario is
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN: ...... LIKELY:
VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE: ... UNLIKELY:
NONE OF THE ABOVE:



Please Vote:

The above described scenario is more likely
TO HAPPEN: ...... NOT TO HAPPEN:

The above described scenario is
HIGHLY LIKELY: ...... HIGHLY UNLIKELY:
NONE OF THE ABOVE:

The above described scenario is
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN: ...... LIKELY:
VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE: ... UNLIKELY:
NONE OF THE ABOVE:



Please Vote:

The above described scenario is more likely
TO HAPPEN: ...... NOT TO HAPPEN:

The above described scenario is
HIGHLY LIKELY: ...... HIGHLY UNLIKELY:
NONE OF THE ABOVE:

The above described scenario is
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN: ...... LIKELY:
VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE: ... UNLIKELY:
NONE OF THE ABOVE:



Identification: Select: First Name: ..... Last Name:
Title/Position: ..... Organization:

Qualifications:

National Security Position: (Past or Present)

Government (civilian position): ......High Level: ......Mid Level: ......Low level: ......Non-Applicable:
Military: ......High Level: ......Mid Level: ......Low level: ......Non-Applicable:
Political: ......High Level: ......Mid Level: ......Low level: ......Non-Applicable:
Scholar: ......High Level: ......Mid Level: ......Low level: ......Non-Applicable:

Background Knowledge

Geopolitical Knowedge: ......High Level: ......Mid Level: ......Low level: ......Non-Applicable:
Military Knowledge: ......High Level: ......Mid Level: ......Low level: ......Non-Applicable:
Analytic Skills: ......High Level: ......Mid Level: ......Low level: ......Non-Applicable:

Comments?

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BiPSA Neural Network Technology is Operated by AGS Encryptions Ltd.